What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David H. Hathaway  Robert M. Wilson 《Solar physics》2004,224(1-2):5-19

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.  相似文献   

Transient‐state groundwater flow in various geometries with wells at arbitrary positions: analytical methods     

M. W. Roth  C. M Wilson  M. Z. Iqbal 《水文研究》2003,17(17):3519-3530

We have developed a method for analytically solving the porous medium flow equation in many different geometries for horizontal (two‐dimensional), homogeneous and isotropic aquifers containing impermeable boundaries and any number of pumping or injection wells located at arbitrary positions within the system. Solutions and results are presented for rectangular and circular aquifers but the method presented here is easily extendible to many geometries. Results are also presented for systems where constant head boundary conditions can be emulated internal to the aquifer boundary. Recommendations for extensions of the present work are briefly discussed. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Imaging the surface of Mercury using ground-based telescopes     

Michael Mendillo  Johan Warell  Sanjay S. Limaye  Jeffrey Baumgardner  Ann Sprague  Jody K. Wilson 《Planetary and Space Science》2001,49(14-15)

We describe and compare two methods of short-exposure, high-definition ground-based imaging of the planet Mercury. Two teams have recorded images of Mercury on different dates, from different locations, and with different observational and data reduction techniques. Both groups have achieved spatial resolutions of <250 km, and the same albedo features and contrast levels appear where the two datasets overlap (longitudes 270–360°). Dark albedo regions appear as mare and correlate well with smooth terrain radar signatures. Bright albedo features agree optically, but less well with radar data. Such confirmations of state-of-the-art optical techniques introduce a new era of ground-based exploration of Mercury's surface and its atmosphere. They offer opportunities for synergistic, cooperative observations before and during the upcoming Messenger and BepiColombo missions to Mercury.  相似文献   

Simulated estimation of hydrological loads from GRACE     

K.-W. Seo  C. R. Wilson 《Journal of Geodesy》2004,78(7-8):442-456

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Elastic radiation from explosively loaded ellipsoidal cavities in an unbounded medium     

L. A. Glenn  A. J. C. Ladd  B. Moran  K. A. Wilson 《Geophysical Journal International》1985,81(1):231-241

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Local potential analysis of MHD instability     

K. K. Sen  S. J. Wilson 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1985,109(1):131-143

In many astrophysical problems, the study of the stability of an atmosphere in the presence of a magnetic field is of importance. In most cases the MHD instabilities of atmospheres are studied by energy principle of Bernsteinet al. (1958). In this paper, a general method for studying the stability of a system subject to MHD equations of conditions has been proposed. This is based on the local potential concept put forward by Glansdorff and Prigogine (1964). The scheme for securing stability criteria has been demonstrated in two particular cases.  相似文献   

Hard X-ray light curves of high-mass X-ray binaries     

S. Laycock  M. J. Coe  C. A. Wilson  B. A. Harmon  M. Finger 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,338(1):211-218

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Estimation of anisoplanatism in adaptive optics by generalized SCIDAR profiling     

R. W. Wilson  N. J. Wooder  F. Rigal  J. C. Dainty 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,339(2):491-494

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Impersonal parameters from Hertzsprung–Russell diagrams     

R. E. Wilson  Jarrod R. Hurley 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,344(4):1175-1186

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MANGALA VALLES, MARS: ASSESSMENT OF EARLY STAGES OF FLOODING AND DOWNSTREAM FLOOD EVOLUTION     

Gil J. Ghatan  James W. Head  Lionel Wilson 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2005,96(1-2):1-57

The Mangala Valles system is an ∼ ∼900 km fluvially carved channel system located southwest of the Tharsis rise and is unique among the martian outflow channels in that it heads at a linear fracture within the crust as opposed to a collapsed region of chaos as is the case with the circum-Chryse channels. Mangala Valles is confined within a broad, north–south trending depression, and begins as a single valley measuring up to 350 km wide that extends northward from a Memnonia Fossae graben, across the southern highlands toward the northern lowlands. Approximately 600 km downstream, this single valley branches into multiple channels, which ultimately lose their expression at the dichotomy boundary. Previous investigations of Mangala Vallis suggested that many of the units mapped interior to the valley were depositional, related to flooding, and that a minimum of two distinct periods of flooding separated by tens to hundreds of millions of years were required to explain the observed geology. We use infrared and visible images from the THermal EMission Imaging System (THEMIS), and topographic data from the Mars Orbiting Laser Altimeter (MOLA), to investigate the nature of the units mapped within Mangala Vallis. We find that the geomorphology of the units, as well as their topographic and geographic distribution, are consistent with most of them originating from a single assemblage of volcanic flow deposits, once continuous with volcanic flows to the south of the Memnonia Fossae source graben. These flows resurfaced the broad, north–south trending depression into which Mangala Vallis formed prior to any fluvial activity. Later flooding scoured and eroded this volcanic assemblage north of the Mangala source graben, resulting in the present distribution of the units within Mangala Vallis. Additionally, our observations suggest that a single period of catastrophic flooding, rather than multiple periods separated by tens to hundreds of millions of years, is consistent with and can plausibly explain the interior geology of Mangala Vallis. Further, we present a new scenario for the source and delivery of water to the Mangala source graben that models flow of groundwater through a sub-cryosphere aquifer and up a fracture that cracks the cryosphere and taps this aquifer. The results of our model indicate that the source graben, locally enlarged to a trough near the head region of Mangala, would have required less than several days to fill up prior to any spill-over of water to the north. Through estimates of the volume of material missing from Mangala (13,000–20,000 km³), and calculation of mean discharge rates through the channel system (∼ ∼5 × 10⁶ m³ s⁻¹), we estimate that the total duration of fluvial activity through the Mangala Valles was 1–3 months.  相似文献